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grassynolehitman
	Subject	i appreciate the converstaion
	Posted on	10-01-2006 13:49
	From	[IP Logged]

that is one of the reasons i post it. And I am glad you feel it adds value to this site. i was hoping that people would feel that way.

now a look into the teams you mentioned.

first #23 GT. they have played 5 games so far. 2 games vs good competition (ND, VT). 2 games vs poor 1A competition (Troy, UVA) and 1 game vs a 1AA team. expect their ranking to jump with their next 2 games vs 3-1 Md and 4-1 CU. if they win both of those games i would not be surprised to see GT as a top 10 team in 2 more weeks heading into the Miami game. they have really good stats, but 60% of the games have come vs poor competition. if they can put up performances like the VT game in the next 2 weeks that will give them really good numbers with nearly 60% of the games coming against good competition. they could easily be aroung #7 in 2 weeks. i have watched them play 3 games this year, and i have to say they impress me a lot. Calvin Johnson needs to get some Heisman hype. the GT D is rock solid. if they get the ball to CJ 1 more time in their opener...people would be talking very loudly about an ACC title or more. (bonus stat...they would be #11 in my ranking if they win the ND game 17-14)

#25 Texas: I am not quite so sure they are undervalued in this ranking. like GT they played 3 games vs really bad competition (#94 Rice, #108 UNT, and 1AA Sam Houston). they ran up REALLY big numbers vs those 3 teams...but frankly whipping up on a tomato can dosn't impress me much. this is the sort of situation that I developed my formula for. Think FSU in the mid 90's. which game meant more, a close win vs UF or a 63-3 win vs Duke? i think their 37-14 win over Iowa State and the 24-7 loss to OSU are representative of their talent. they will win comfortably vs middle of the road teams, and will put up a good fight but lose to national title contenders. that is the sort of behavior you would expect from a team in the 15-30 range. and i fully expect their ranking to end up in that range.

#38 UGA: They have a great defense statistically...but the quality of competition has been so bad that they actually have a botton 25 D in my rankings. that just is not right. the problem is that the best team they have played is South Carolina at 3-2. also strugging so much against Colorado may indicate that they truly are the worst undefeated team in the nation. at this point in the season they are certainly the least accomplished undefeated team that i have examined. the good news is that in their next 7 games they play 4 games vs really good teams (UT, UF, Auburn, and GT). the bad news is that my current rankings predict them to loas all 4 of those games...3 of them by 20+ points. if they finish 8-4 with big losses to every good team they play, a #38 ranking is where they deserve to be. if they can pull off an upset or 3 in those games then they will be ranked much higher. like i said last week...i feel bad for them with their scheduling. when they agreed to play Colorado, they were playing for Big 12 titles. now they are trying to figure out how to beat a 1AA team.

#12 Washington: i actually have no problem with them at #12 at this point in the season. they have played 2 teams with losing records (2-3 Arizona, and 1-3 Fresno) and 3 teams with 3-1 records (OU, San Jose, and UCLA) granted, San Jose State is not a GREAT team (they are #87 after all) but normally this is a team that finds a way to lose to 1AA competition. OU and UCLA are 2 very good teams. maybe OU, UO, and Washington all should be moved down 3-4 spots...but i have no problem with them being all ranked around 10 at this point. they have played good teams early and should be rewarded for their relatively tough schedule.

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