Florida State Rush Offense vs Clemson Rush Defense
Florida State got off to an unbalanced start in 2014. Against Oklahoma State the Noles only averaged 3.42 yards per carry and really struggled to get anything going in the run game. Karlos Williams looked tentative and the Oklahoma State line was able to penetrate the backfield far too easily. Reportedly, several members of the FSU offensive line had struggled with flu like symptoms leading up to the game. That may or may not have had an impact on their performance. It is difficult to say at this point as in the second game they went up against an overmatched squad from The Citadel. The running game did what they’re supposed to do against an overmatched team though, run for 6.0 yards per carry and 210 yards. Especially encouraging was the play of freshman Dalvin Cook and redshirt sophomore Mario Pender. Both young running backs are natural playmakers and look comfortable with the ball in their hands. The Noles start a veteran offensive line with 5 seniors across the front with loads of game experience. Touted as one of the top lines in the nation prior to the season, the group needs to step up their game to earn that distinction.
The Clemson defense, likewise, is off to an uneven start. In their season opener against Georgia they were torched for 328 yards on an eye popping 8.0 yards per carry and 5 touchdowns. Now, granted, they were facing an excellent running back in Todd Gurley and a very good Georgia rushing offense. Those are huge numbers to give up on the ground, though, and don’t bode well for Clemson’s rush defense. They also followed up a tougher opening game with an overmatched opponent. Against South Carolina State, the Tigers only allowed 7 yards on 28 carries. Clemson also starts a veteran line with a lot of talent. Grady Jarrett in the middle is especially a load and is a player to watch.
Clemson has been torched the last 3 years by Seminole quarterbacks through the air and the Tigers can’t afford to sell out on the run, even with backup Sean Maguire leading the way for at least the first half. With a deep backfield and the emergence of Pender and Cook to go along with Karlos Williams, I think the Noles will be able to run the ball against the Tigers. I don’t expect them to have the same success that Georgia did, but it will be plenty to keep the Clemson defense honest and allow the Noles to remain balanced on offense.
Advantage: Slight FSU
Key Matchup: FSU C Austin Barron vs Clemson DT Grady Jarrett
Austin Barron has received a lot of criticism early this year by fans, some of it warranted, some of it not. Barron is not the player that Bryan Stork was for the Noles last year, but he has held his own fairly well this season. He has at times been pushed into the backfield and needs to play more physical. Grady Jarrett is a quality player on the other side and if he can disrupt the Noles running game by pushing the line of scrimmage back, it could be difficult for the Noles ground game to get going.
Florida State Pass Offense vs Clemson Pass Defense
The Florida State passing attack has started off well in 2014. While not quite up to the play of the 2013 Seminoles, Florida State is averaging 327 yards through the air through two games. In the opener against Oklahoma State, the Noles were able to hit big plays to the tune of 370 yards. They lacked some efficiency and diversification in the pass game, though, with Rashad Greene catching 11 balls for 203 yards. Against The Citadel, the Seminoles improved in both efficiency and spreading the ball around. They were buoyed by the return of Bobo Wilson at receiver and freshman Ermon Lane saw his first action. Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Jameis Winston wasn’t as sharp in the opener but rebounded to be nearly perfect against The Citadel and has completed 70 percent of his passes thus far for a 9.3 yards per attempt average and a QB rating of 157.44. With the news that Winston will be out for at least the first half due to suspension, it’s hard to know what to expect from the Noles in the first half. Jimbo Fisher has shown a propensity for letting his quarterbacks air it out in backup roles. In 2011 against Clemson, Clint Trickett started for injured EJ Manuel and threw 38 times for 336 yards in a losing effort. Sean Maguire is a capable quarterback that Jimbo Fisher liked and offered early on. He has a nice arm and good athleticism.
Clemson’s pass defense has shut both Georgia and South Carolina State down so far in 2014. It’s hard to gauge if that is due to the ability of Clemson or the ineptitude of the passing offenses they’ve faced. Georgia was not impressive against South Carolina last weekend throwing for just 191 yards on a 8.7 yards per attempt average. That was the same South Carolina defense that gave up 511 yards to Texas A&M and 321 yards to East Carolina. South Carolina State simply had a dreadful offense that only managed 44 total yards for the game. What we do know about Clemson is that they boast one of the top rush ends in the country in Vic Beasley. Beasley was shut down last year by Cam Erving and he’ll be looking for redemption. The Tigers also have an outstanding young talent at cornerback in Mackensie Alexander.
Jameis Winston threw for 444 yards last year as the Noles routed Clemson. In fact, in the last 3 match ups Seminole quarterbacks have had success through the air with EJ Manuel throwing for 380 yards in 2012 and Clint Trickett throwing for 336 in 2011. Clemson matches up better this year against the Noles passing attack then they did last year, but this is still an advantage for the Noles. It’s probably more of a push in the first half with Maguire, but the Noles still have the ability to win through the air.
Advantage: Push in the 1st Half, FSU in the 2nd
Key Matchup: FSU LT Cam Erving vs Clemson DE Vic Beasley
This was the key matchup last season and it will be this year again. Beasley and Erving are future NFL players that will be battling on the edge. Beasley is a speed rusher without a lot of size, but good strength. Erving is an big, athletic, prototype left tackle with good reach and excellent feet. Without much of a pass rush last year, Winston was able to find plenty of time to target the Seminole receivers and work though his progressions. If that happens again this year, it will be a tall task for the Clemson secondary to cover the Nole pass catchers for long.
Clemson Rush Offense vs Florida State Rush Defense
Clemson has really spread the carries around so far in 2014 with 5 running backs having between 9 and 16 carries. That doesn’t include any runs by quarterbacks Cole Stoudt and Deshaun Watson. Wayne Gallman has been been the most productive thus far averaging 7.45 yards per carry on 11 carries. Overall, however, the Clemson rushing attack hasn’t been that strong. They were held to 88 yards on 43 carries by Georgia. Against South Carolina State they rolled up 268 yards rushing, but at only a 5.25 yards per carry average, not an overly strong number against that caliber of team. The offensive line, particularly at tackle was a question mark coming into the season and so far haven’t really answered one way or another. With Chad Morris having basically 3 weeks to prepare, I would imagine we’ll see the kitchen sink much like the 2012 game in Tallahassee. That could involve reverses, jet sweeps, multiple quarterbacks, and trick plays.
Florida State has been only okay against the run thus far. In the opener against Oklahoma State the Noles allowed 3.83 yards per carry which is not horrible, but they gave up some runs at key times and had a tough time getting off the field. It is important to note that the defense didn’t sub nearly as much as they historically have and a lot of the issues defensively seemed to happen in the second half as players really started to wear down. There was a much greater number of players involved in the second game against The Citadel, but it’s hard to really gauge any improvement. The Noles sat in their base 4-2-5 against a triple option team that most likely won’t be a style they see again this season. Good news for Nole fans is that starters Eddie Goldman and Nile Lawrence-Stample have been practicing and should be good to go after leaving with injuries against The Citadel.
Neither team has really played to their ability yet in this matchup so this one is a tough call. If playing at their peak, Florida State has this advantage here. At this point, though I don’t see a decided advantage one way or another.
Advantage: Push
Key Matchup: Clemson LT Isaiah Battle vs FSU DE Mario Edwards
Mario Edwards is arguably the best defensive end against the rush in the nation. He is a massive man on the outside that can set the edge, shed blocks, and make tackles. In fact Edwards outweighs his counterpart by almost 30 pounds, almost unheard of for an offensive tackle versus a defensive end. Battle isn’t small at 6’7″ with a big wingspan, but at 275 is a bit thin for his frame.
Clemson Pass Offense vs Florida State Pass Defense
Clemson was not good through the air at all in the opener against Georgia. Quarterbacks Cole Stoudt and Deshaun Watson combined to complete just 54% of their passes for a below average 6.2 yards per attempt. Both quarterbacks looked much better against a bad South Carolina State team. Watson is definitely the bigger talent of the two but Stoudt, having been in the system longer, has a better grasp of the offense. I would expect to see both quarterbacks again this weekend. On the other end of those passes are some talented, young players. With Clemson losing their best wide receiver in history, Sammy Watkins, as well as physical freak Martavis Bryant, someone needed to step up for the Tigers. Freshman Artavis Bryant has impressed early on averaging 25 yards per catch and sophomore Mike Williams is averaging 24 yards per catch.
Florida State boasts one of the most talented secondaries in the nation with headliners Ronald Darby, P.J. Williams, and Jalen Ramsey leading the way. They were only average by FSU standards in the opener giving up 203 yards on a 7.3 yards per attempt. The Cowboys only completed 53% of those passes, though. P.J. Williams is reportedly back to full strength after tweaking his hamstring. He sat out The Citadel game and has basically had 3 weeks to rest, recuperate, and practice. Last season, the Noles used a variety of blitz looks to really confuse and stifle Tahj Boyd and the Clemson passing attack. I would expect the same thing this season with rushers coming from all different spots on the field at times. We already saw this some in the first two games.
Clemson has the athletes to hit some big plays and the backend of the Nole’s secondary is tad bit more of a question than the outside. Tyler Hunter and Nate Andrews, particularly Hunter, need to play better against Clemson. Overall, though, FSU has the advantage here.
Advantage: FSU
Score Prediction: FSU 37-21