Five Games To Watch

5games

 

#10 Oklahoma  at  #6 Baylor – Thursday, 11/7 7:30 pm EST, FoxSports1

Baylor’s high flying, record setting offense gets it’s first real test of the season on Thursday night when they face perennial power Oklahoma.  Baylor leads the nation in just about every offensive category including Scoring Offense (63.9 PPG), Total Offense (717.3 YPG), Yards Per Play (9.03 YPP), Passing Offense (417.3 YPG), Passer Rating (207.12), and Yards Per Attempt (13.3 YPA). Just for good measure they also rank in the Top 10 in Rushing Yards (300.0 YPG) and Yards Per Carry (6.25).  They are the #1 offense in the nation according to S&P+ opponent adjusted advanced statistics.  The Baylor offense has hung 70+ points 4 out of their 7 games and a 69 spot in another.  However, against the only good defense they’ve faced this year, Kansas State, they managed just 35 points.  That was a game they won just 35-25 in Manhattan.  Oklahoma will have the best offense and second best defense that Baylor has faced this year.  If Baylor’s magical season is to continue and their slim National Championship hopes are to survive, this is a game they need.  The next contests for Baylor are going to be tough as after Oklahoma, they face Texas Tech and then travel to Stillwater to face Oklahoma State.

#3 Oregon  at  #5 Stanford – Thursday, 11/7 9:00 pm EST,  ESPN

The game of the week in college football and the game of the year in the Pac12 happens on Thursday night.  The second of two top 10 matchups on the night pits Oregon and Stanford, both in the hunt for a National Title.  This will be strength on strength and weakness on weakness for both teams.  One of the top offenses in the nation in Oregon (ranked 6th in S&P+) going up against one of the top ranked defenses in the nation in Stanford (ranked 6th in S&P+). Stanford’s physical play along the line thwarted the Oregon attack last season in the 17-14 upset.  The Cardinal will have to have the same success along the line of scrimmage to disrupt the Oregon run game and force Marcus Mariota to beat them in passing situations.  Mariota has the ability to beat you through the air in those situations, but it’s certainly the easier option.  On the opposite side of the ball, Oregon has made great strides defensively.  They do a good job against the pass, but still struggle some against the run, particularly against powerful offensive lines.  The Ducks rank 38th in the nation in rush defense according to S&P+.  Stanford hasn’t been as strong offensively this year, but can still pound teams with a solid run game that averages 4.96 yards per carry and 196.38 yards per game.  It’ll take a monumental effort for Stanford to upset the Ducks in this one.

#9 Auburn at  Tennessee – Saturday, 11/9 12:00 pm EST,  ESPN

Auburn is clearly the better team in this matchup, but the early start time in Neyland Stadium and a feisty Volunteer team could give the Tigers a scare on Saturday.  Gus Malzahn has done a fantastic job turning around a very bad Auburn team from a year ago into a team ranked in the BCS Top 10 into November.  Specifically, Auburn is running the ball very well in 2013.  They rank 6th in the nation with 306.2 yards rushing per game, but drop to 33rd in the nation when looking at opponent adjusted advanced stats.  That should be plenty, though, to put up some points against a very average Tennessee defense that struggles against the run.  The Tigers feature 4 backs that have 450+ yards rushing on the year led by Tre Mason who has 921 yards on the year. Quarterback Nick Marshall gets in on the zone read game a good bit, too, with 520 yards rushing which is 2nd on the team.  Auburn is not that strong on defense, but Tennessee has been just plain bad on offense.  The Vols have been outscored by two Top 10 teams in back to back weeks by a combined score of 76-13.  They were able to muster up enough upset then #11 South Carolina the week before that, however, so it’s not too much of a stretch to put Auburn on upset alert this weekend.

Virginia Tech  at  #11 Miami – Saturday, 11/9  7:00 pm EST, ESPN

This Saturday night matchup will have a lot to say about who faces Florida State in the ACC Championship in December. Virginia Tech has gone from a team that was struggling early on (close victories over East Carolina and Marshall) to a team that is now reeling after back to back loses to Duke and Boston College.  Miami is still in the drivers seat in the Coastal, but has to bounce back from the big loss at Florida State this past weekend and do so without their top player, running back Duke Johnson.  Johnson will miss the remainder of the season with a broken ankle.  This one could be a “who can make it to 20″ type game.  Virginia Tech has been very good defensively this year. They will cause problems for a Miami offense that will have to rely much more on the inconsistent arm of Stephen Morris.  On the other side of the ball, Virginia Tech has just been dreadful on offense ranking 107th in rushing yards and 102nd in points scored.  They will have a hard time scoring on a good Miami defense.  If Virginia Tech wins, they’re still in the hunt for the Coastal championship.  If Miami wins, they’re well on their way to a rematch with the Noles.

#13 LSU  at  #1 Alabama – Saturday, 11/9 8:00 pm EST, CBS

This game has had a lot to say in the National Championship picture the last couple of years and, though LSU is out of contention in 2013, it will have a big say this year as well.  Alabama hasn’t played a quality team since the 2nd week of the season when they outscored Texas A&M 49-42 but they’ve been simply dominant in that 6 game stretch.  This will be the first time their defense, which was aided by the return of a few key players after the A&M debacle, will have a chance to really be tested and see if the strides they’ve made are as significant as the stats suggest. Bama has given up just 2 touchdowns in that 6 game stretch and has been simply suffocating on that side of the ball.  Offensively, they have a very balanced attack and have playmakers in the backfield and out wide and a spectacularly solid quarterback in A.J. McCarron.  LSU has already suffered 2 loses to Ole Miss and Georgia.  The Tiger defense is not near as ferocious as it has been in years past, ranking just 66th in S&P+, but has a much better offense led by quarterback Zack Mettenberger.  LSU ranks 10th in the nation in S&P+ offense and has a very balanced attack with the usual strong running game, but a passing offense that is equally as good and can actually stretch the field for the first time in a while.  In fact, LSU ranks 3rd in the nation in yards per attempt just behind Baylor and Florida State. They’re about to go up against a whole different animal in Alabama, though.  It’ll be a tough task to go into Tuscaloosa on Saturday night and come out victorious.

 

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